Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

I will begin by reviewing the fifth assessment report provided by The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the assessment was completed in 2014 and it aims too assess scientific information relevant to: Human-induced climate change, The impacts of human-induced climate change and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC is a universally recognised authority on climate change, providing reports that have the agreement of prominent climate scientists and the consensus of partaking governments. Thousands of experts contribute voluntarily to the production of reports, which are then reviewed by governments, typically involving more than 120 countries. The IPCC does not undertake primary research or monitor climate or related occurrences itself. Instead the IPCC bases its assessment on published literature from peer and non-peer reviewed sources. The IPCC is a scientific consensus, in the first IPCC assessment published in 1990, the Co-Chair Sir John Houghton wrote “peer review has helped ensure a high degree of consensus amongst authors and reviewers regarding the results presented”3, the IPCC promotes the authority of its consensus processes, “A total of 235 Coordination Lead Authors and Lead Authors, 38 Review Editors from 58 countries and 176 contributing authors contributed to the preparation of WGIII AR5”4, The scale of collaboration to produce the assessment removes the suggestion that conflicting conclusions have been reach or that there is personal or cultural biases. “Although… there is a minority of opinions which we have not been able to accommodate, the peer review has helped ensure a high degree of consensus amongst authors and reviewers regarding the results presented. Thus the Assessment is an authoritative statement of views of the international scientific community.”5

The first published assessment report from the IPCC was produced in 1990, with new instalments in 1995, 2001 and a fourth in 2007, the most recent and therefore the one I will interrogate is the 2014 instalment. The Fifth Assessment Report utilised three working group reports; working groups I, III & III. Working group II’s contribution to the fifth assessment is aimed specifically at issues of Impact, Adaption and Vulnerability with reference to climate change. “Human interference with the climate system is occurring, which poses wish for human and natural systems.

The IPCC working group I discusses the rate of sea level rise and how the rate of change over the last half a century, has been greater than the previous two millennia. “Over the period 1901 to 2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m”6, the data reveals that the a higher rate of sea level rise has been in affect in comparison to pre-1900, the report says with high confidence that there is likely possibility that the rate of global mean sea level rise will have continued to increase in the early 20th century. During the last interglacial period (129,000 to 116,000 years ago) the report discusses how, for several thousand years the mean sea level was at least 5m higher than present, however not exceeding 10m. Even though sea level has risen before, the report identifies the context of differing orbital forces and high-latitude surface temperature as the reason behind the rise, rather than the current conditions. “Sea level rise will not be uniform. By the end of the 21st century, it is very likely that sea level will rise in more than about 95% of the ocean area. About 70% of the coastlines worldwide are projected to experience sea level change within 20% of the global mean sea level change.”7

Working group II assesses and evaluates how impacts and risks related to climate change can be reduced and managed through adaption and mitigation.”8 Working group II assesses how we can mitigate issues of climate change or adapt to them, they also discuss the area of climate change I am most interested in, “Sea level-rise”. “Due to sea level rise projected throughout the 21st century and beyond, coastal systems and low-lying areas will increasingly experience adverse impacts such as submergence, coastal flooding, and coastal erosion”9 They highlight that coastal zones and the risks for population and assess in these areas will only increase over the coming decades with the expected population growth, economic developments and urban expansion. Many of the major risks from climate change are located in urban areas, and the report suggests that taking steps now to enable sustainable development will cultivate effective climate-change adaption. The main risks in these urban areas stem from; extreme participation, drought, air pollution, inland flooding and coastal flooding, these risks are then intensified for areas that lack infrastructure or in poor quality structures.

The UK at risk?

“Flooding is identified as the most significant risk, currently and in the short term, across the UK. Water availability and overheating of buildings are assessed to be increasingly significant by the middle of the century, particularly in England.” 1 Identified by The 2012 UK Climate Change impact assessment. Water and our coastline is a crucial aspect that shapes our built environment and has been a driving factor for many centuries. We depend on it, we use it, we live with it and we must respect it. The Subject I propose to research is topical and concerns the effect of climate change on the world’s global coastal cities. I will aim to explore the causes and impacts of flooding on coastal cities and to identify current solutions and potential measures for dealing with it, specifically with the urban flooding conditions in central London, England. As a cause of rising greenhouse gas emissions the temperature of the world is increasing and as a by-product of the rise in temperature polar ice melts therefore increasing the volume of seawater. The likelihood of intensified and more frequent extreme weather conditions combined with the rise in sea levels means water will move farther inland and with increasing force causing havoc in the worlds most dense urban centres.

 

1  Great Britain, and Food & Rural Affairs De- partment for Environment, UK Climate Change Risk Assessment: Government Report (London: Statio- nery Office, 2012) p29

Research Proposal

Sustainable Urbanism – How will the rise of sea levels as an effect of climate change affect our coastal cities.

The Subject I propose to research is topical and concerns the effect of climate change on the worlds Global coastal Cities. I will aim to explore the causes and impacts of flooding on coastal cities and to identify current solutions and potential measures for dealing specifically with the urban flooding conditions in central London, England.